In 1974, Muhammad Ali faced-off against George Foreman in Zaire in what was one of the most anticipated heavyweight boxing contests of all time. Ali shocked everyone by taking a defensive stance in the corners seemingly allowing Foreman to pummel him in the early rounds. In reality, he was using the ropes to absorb some of energy from Foreman’s punches that were mostly landing on his forearms. Eventually, the aggressor Foreman began to tire and the patient Ali won the fight by knockout in the 8th round. The term “rope-a-dope” was coined and this technique continues to be used by boxers to combat an overly aggressive competitor.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton chose to go toe-to-toe with Donald Trump and lost. In 2020, Joe Biden took advantage of COVID to adopt a version of rope-a-dope and avoid impromptu interactions. With Biden inaccessible, the media’s attention was focused on Trump. While Trump punched and punched, Joe sat in his basement. When Biden finally emerged for their first debate, Trump, like Foreman in 1974, attempted to knock him out in the first round. Unfortunately for Trump, he came off looking like a rude bully and the election was basically decided that evening. Rope-a-dope had worked for Joe Biden just as it had for Ali.
Now it’s 2024 and we have another highly anticipated heavyweight bout (election) approaching. It’s been nearly a month since Kamala Harris was declared the Democratic nominee, and apart from a few rallies in which she remained very scripted, she has carefully avoided any interaction in which she might speak extemporaneously. In the early rounds she has deployed Biden’s rope-a-dope strategy very effectively. By backing into the corner and covering up, she can enjoy the bump in enthusiasm that followed Biden’s stepping aside. She’ll most likely continue this strategy, at least through the Democratic National Convention next week.
This is a good strategy for Harris as she hasn’t proved to be particularly effective when speaking off-script. By allowing her media allies at CNN, MSNBC, and Time Magazine to define who she is, and utilizing her magnetic smile (has Trump ever smiled?) and her laugh in her marketing, she can make the election about personality and identity rather than policy. It is better to elect a likable woman of color rather than an unlikeable white guy!
Everything might start to change with their first debate on September 10. Just as Ali eventually had to come out of the corner and fight, Harris will be forced out of the corner on that date. Will Trump be the overly aggressive, obnoxious guy we saw in the first debate with Biden in 2020, or the guy we saw in July who allowed Joe to speak freely, demonstrating he really is in cognitive decline?
I predict that Harris will come out of next week’s convention with an even larger lead in the polls and will continue to play rope-a-dope until September 10. If Trump comes off as measured, knowledgeable and consistent and Harris struggles with her policy inconsistencies and is revealed to more progressive than her allies are portraying her, the momentum might shift back to Trump. If he performs poorly or if the obnoxious, condescending Trump shows up, it’s game over.