Undecided? Really?

As I watch presidential election coverage on the various networks, I keep hearing references to the candidates’ attempts to sway undecided voters. And I wonder, “how in the world could anyone be undecided at this point? What is going to change someone’s mind, now?” The candidates represent stark contrasts in almost every area. No matter your ideology, the choice should be simple.

People I know to be voting for Kamala Harris tend to fall into one or more of these blocks:

1. They have always been Democrats, have confidence in government to design and implement solutions for societal problems, and see wealth redistribution as a legitimate role of government.
2. They are more independent and may vote Republican sometimes, but the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision (overturning Roe v Wade) spooked them and their concern about a national abortion ban is now a major driver in their decision to support Harris.
3. They are concerned about climate change and feel an urgency to implement both government investment in green energies and government action to limit fossil fuel production and use.
4. They are voting on identity. They like that Harris is female and dark-skinned. Their decision has nothing at all to do with policy positions.
5. They are voting on emotion – they hate Donald Trump for reasons it might be difficult for them to articulate and would be voting for whomever his opponent might have been.

People I know to be voting for Donald Trump tend to fall into one or more of these blocks:

1. They have always been Republicans, favor more limited government, think government should take a mostly hands-off approach to the economy, believe in self-determination and believe the primary role of government is to protect its citizens from foreign threats and to enforce laws that protect their property and their safety.
2. They are more independent and may vote Democrat sometimes, but the recent influence of the progressive wing of the Democratic party has spooked them. Party support for things like gender affirming care for pre-pubescent kids, defunding the police, soft-on-crime progressive prosecutors, and victim blaming is more concerning to them than their concern about an abortion ban.
3. They are either climate change deniers or accept that the earth is warming, but they don’t see how the aggressive approaches favored by Harris and the Democrats are going to make their lives better. But they can clearly see how they might make their lives worse. If they own a restaurant with gas appliances, if they work in a fossil fuel industry like coal, oil or natural gas, if they like to grill out on the weekends, they might be leery of a Harris administration.
4. They are voting on identity. Yes, both sides have their bigots. Harris has people voting for her for what she is not who she is. So does Trump.
5. They are voting on emotion – they venerate Trump.

Based on these five buckets, I’m stumped as to who is still undecided. Many think the September 10 debate could be the final determinant. It seems to be that voters falling into buckets 1-4 above wouldn’t be swayed by a debate, even if their candidate makes some gaffes. If that’s true, does this mean that the election will be decided by those in bucket #5 – those who vote on emotion alone? That’s a horrifying thought. If an individual can be leaning one way and then vote the other because of a phrase, answer, response or body language in a televised debate, I’d rather they not vote.

But they do, and there is precedent. In 1960, the first televised debate featuring two presidential candidates ultimately determined the outcome. Richard Nixon had injured himself, been hospitalized, lost 20 pounds and looked frail. John Kennedy, in contrast, looked tan, healthy and energetic. Like Barack Obama 48 years later, Kennedy had been a one-term senator and had very little foreign policy experience while Nixon (and John McCain) had much more impressive resumes. The undecided emotion voters elected Kennedy and Obama.

Undecided emotion voters are unpredictable. They will choose their candidate at the last minute based on how that candidate makes them feel versus what the candidate will do. They ultimately choose the direction our country will go for the next four years. It’s scary, but the alternative is to have our leaders chosen by some committee. That scares me more. Our system may be flawed, but it’s the best system in the world!