There is perhaps no issue that is more politicized than human influences on climate change. COVID-19 might be a close second. In most surveys I’ve seen, the number of people who believe the concept of global warming is a complete hoax is usually around 18%, almost 1 in 5.
I wanted to learn more about this subject, but I didn’t want to read books by climate change deniers who may be linked to the fossil fuel industry or are contrarians on principle, nor books by climate change activists who may be cherry-picking data to support their agenda, which seems as political as it is meteorological. I wanted someone who is relatively independent but who really understands the data to help me understand it too. Luckily, I found the book, Unsettled, by Steven Koonin. Dr. Koonin was a member of the Obama administration, so he’s no right wing conspiracy theorist, but he also hasn’t jumped all-in with the client activists either. His book is a thoughtful attempt to explain what the science really says and how it is sometimes being misrepresented by both deniers and activists.
While I recommend that you read the book yourself, here are a few of my takeaways:
- The earth is warming. If you say it’s not, you sound like a flat-earther to most rational people.
- It is difficult to determine how much of the warming is due to human influence, but there is no doubt that there is some human influence. Koonin analyzes several models that look at climate change before the industrial age and after and concludes that the models don’t really tell us how much of the warming is human influenced, despite what the activists claim – there are just too many variables.
- There is no evidence that hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires and other weather or natural events are any worse now than they were before the industrial age. So, when a politician points to the devastation left by a tropical storm or wildfire as proof that we must do something urgently about global warming, that politician is twisting the science for political ends.
- Models that predict dire consequences in just a few short years are suspect. Primarily because Dr. Koonin is not able to go back and apply the models’ assumptions to known facts from early to mid 20th century and predict the amount of warming that occurred in the late 20th century. For example, if we have a mathematical formula that predicts how long it will take a penny dropped from the top of the Empire State Building to hit the ground (and we do), that formula should be expected to accurately predict that time (9 seconds as it turns out) over and over with only slight variations due to wind. But Koonin discovered that when he applied various “doomsday” models to the known climate in the 1920s and used those models to predict climate in the 1980s, he couldn’t come close to what actually happened.
The main takeaway for me was that political investment in green technologies make sense. More and more auto manufacturers are producing reliable, affordable electric vehicles and we’ll continue to see a gradual transition to those vehicles (similar to the move to unleaded fuel in the 1970s and 80s). Government tax incentives and investment in this transition is logical.
However, the Biden administration’s sudden cessation of American fossil fuel exploration, leases, and pipelines is turning out to be poor policy. The strategy pushed by climate activists of limiting fossil fuel supply to raise prices and hasten a conversion to cleaner energy is partly being realized in that supply in the US has diminished due to Administration policies, and gasoline prices have risen. The average price per gallon in California, for example, was $3.14 in October 2020, but had risen 37% to $4.31 by September 2021. However, the demand for gasoline hasn’t correspondingly reduced, causing the US to depend on imported oil to meet demand.
Since the science doesn’t justify the need for an urgent and immediate cessation of the use of fossil fuels, US policy that weakens the ability to meet demand using domestic sources is illogical. The switch to greener energy has already begun and there will no doubt be a natural reduction in the demand for fossil fuels over the next decades. The punitive policies embraced by climate activists are hurting small businesses with fleets and others who can’t flip a switch and replace those fleets with green vehicles overnight.