Everyone seemed to expect a red wave in the 2022 mid-term elections, but Republicans didn’t take the Senate and at the time of this writing, it’s still unclear if they’ll even control the House when the votes are all tallied. The pundits on Fox News and on CNN/MSNBC were equally stunned as the outcome became clearer. The Republicans had every tailwind imaginable, with the incumbent president’s approval ratings low, high inflation that kicked-in during his administration, near-consensus that we are headed for a double-dip recession in 2023, concern from many moderate Democrats about the party’s progressive agenda items, and concerns about the southern border, at least from border state Dems. What happened?
I’ll be interested in seeing the exit poll data as the pundits start to unravel the rationale behind the results, but here’s what I predict we’ll see:
Abortion
While the conservatives on Fox haven’t said much about it, Republican zeal after the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling resulted in several states almost immediately enacting stricter abortion laws or effectively banning abortion completely. The presumed next Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, is on record stating that if Republicans take the House, some type of national abortion limits or ban would be brought to a vote. When you look at the demographics of those who favor abortion bans, they are the reddest of the red. It’s difficult to flip blue districts or states red while taking this position and the results seem to indicate that. It’s also difficult to claim that you’re the party of freedom while pushing to restrict something that is perceived by many to be a right. Florida governor DeSantis and nine other conservative governors won their elections in mostly conservative states by focusing on freedom as it pertained to their responses to COVID and school shutdowns. Republican candidates in purple and light blue states got pummeled on the abortion issue. I believe this policy position played a larger role in the Nov 11 results than it is given credit for.
The Trump Effect
Donald Trump aggressively injected himself into the primary season. In many cases he threw his weight behind candidates who were not preferred by the local Republican establishment and perceived by most except for the most ardent Trump supporters to be weaker candidates. Democrats saw this opportunity, supported, and where allowed, voted for Trump-backed candidates during the primaries believing it would help them in November. They were right! Republicans who were perceived to be more electable in the general election lost to Trump-backed candidates during the primaries and the Trump-backed candidates in hotly contested races lost to the Democratic challengers in the general election in high numbers. The Trump candidates in light blue districts were easily painted in attack ads as election deniers and threats to democracy. Even those Trumpers who won their races, won by smaller margins than other statewide Republicans who were not so closely linked with Trump. While reasonable center-right candidates might well have garnered enough independent and center-left voters in those states as a result of those tailwinds, they weren’t on the ballots. Trump fatigue definitely contributed to the weaker performance on the part of the Republicans.
The Border
Fox News and many Republican campaign advisors overestimated the impact of border policy on the election. Perhaps, like me, they see both parties as failures on border policy. Our border policy is awful. Trump’s wall would actually help, as it would funnel people through checkpoints where we want them to be rather than allowing them to swim across rivers or walk through deserts. We need a way to screen who’s coming and going, but make no mistake, we need the immigrants and should welcome immigrants who are aligned with our values. And we should make it really easy for them to pursue the American Dream by giving them documentation that allows them to legally work immediately. Neither party is saying that. The Dems largely avoided the subject this election cycle while Republicans focused on fentanyl and cartels as a major threat. Their policy ideas make them appear racist – like they don’t want Hispanics here. The Dems, when they address the border at all, make it clear that to them, all are welcome, even the bad guys. But they seem to want them on government assistance rather than working. Either way, the topic didn’t seem to sway those independent and center-left voters who might otherwise be frustrated with the progressive agenda.
All-in-all it was a missed opportunity for Republicans. They have two years to figure out what their party stands for or the Democrats might continue to control government in spite of the lunacy coming from their most vocal members.