A year and a half before the 2024 election and the Republican primary fight is shaping up similarly to the 2016 version. While there were 17 announced candidates in 2015 and “only” 10 candidates this cycle, the results are likely to be the same. Trump has his base that will vote for him no matter what. The other nine candidates will scramble to position themselves as the strong second option, but the way the primary math works for the Republican party, it’ll likely be too little too late for whomever emerges as the secondary favorite.
There is one huge difference between 2016 and 2024 and that is Trump can’t win a national election in 2024. He barely won in 2016 with support from independents who simply didn’t like Hillary, plus some enthusiasm from white union workers in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. In 2024 Trump is a wounded candidate. He was impeached twice, some of his comments during COVID were just outright odd, his irrational denials of the 2020 election results and now a criminal indictment that may have teeth, have made him persona non grata to independents and many moderate Republicans.
It’s a tough situation for Republicans. On the one hand, independents and some moderate Democrats are ripe for a common sense candidate who has a positive vision for America. They see that Democratic policies have evolved such that the law abiding citizens and law enforcement are the problem and the criminal is not. The tax-paying-property-owner is the problem, not the squatter or the homeless person pooping on their lawn. The small business owner is the problem, not the person who has made a lifestyle out of living off government programs. They have largely bought-in to intersectionality theories that are intellectually lazy and pit groups against each other. These are easy topics for a moderate candidate to win on. But Republicans have two problems: First, they keep doubling down on abortion. This pushes many of those independents right back to Democratic candidates, even if it means holding their nose. The second is Trump.
Depending on the poll, Trump seems to hover around 50% support from Republican primary voters. His poll numbers actually went up after the Bragg (NY) indictment. That case is transparently political and easily played into Trump’s talking point that DC is a swamp and he’s drawn its ire for being an outsider. His numbers dipped back down a bit after the Federal indictment related to the classified documents. That case is reportedly much more legally sound and some of the released audio tapes are pretty damning. The other candidates are fighting for a share of the remaining 50% and only have eight months or so before the primaries begin to differentiate themselves.
Who can rise and become a legitimate competitor? There was hope among many Republicans that Ron DeSantis would capitalize on his popularity from keeping Florida open during COVID and his landslide re-election in 2022. But his war on Disney has likely hurt him and his support has dipped from 30% to 20% in recent months. He overplayed his hand with the mouse and came off looking vindictive. Conservatives are frustrated with Disney, but they still take their kids to the park. They might stop buying Bud Light, but they’re not going to tell their children they can’t watch the Disney channel.
Nikki Haley and Tim Scott are candidates with a lot of potential but are stuck in low single digits. Either would likely defeat Joe Biden in the general election if they somehow got the nomination. While Mike Pence holds a slight lead over Haley and Scott in the primary polling, he probably wouldn’t do as well as either in a national election due to his ties to Trump and his MAGA group still being mad at him. To many, all three seem pretty much like the same candidate policy-wise.
Republicans have a debate scheduled for August 23. Trump has pledged not to participate. In 1859, presumptive Republican nominee, William Seward, chose to leave for a trip to Europe during the pre-election run-up. When he returned, he discovered that Abraham Lincoln had surprisingly been named the nominee. Could one of the secondary candidates rise to the top as a result of their debate performance while Trump sits on the sideline?
Unfortunately, there are too many of them. In the modern debate prep era, it’s doubtful more than one or two will make gaffes that hurt their candidacy. They’ll likely just beat up on each other (and the absent Trump) with none of them siphoning off a significant number of Trump’s 50%. The only way to consolidate support behind one of the secondary candidates would be for most of them to drop out and throw their weight behind a single individual soon. But the financial incentives to stay in the race as long as possible (TV exposure, network jobs, campaign cash, book deals, etc.) will likely mean that this won’t happen in time for anyone to mount a serious challenge to Trump.
So, based on where things stand today, it appears that Trump will snatch the Republican nomination and get slaughtered in the general election and Republicans will have lost one of their best opportunities in decades to grab the White House.