Joe Biden is the incumbent President of the United States. Not unlike Donald Trump in 2016, he was elected more because of the unpopularity of his opponent than his own popularity or policy positions. Biden’s approval rating has dropped from 60% when he was elected to 41% according to Reuters. His unfavorability rating has increased even more – from 32% on election day to 54% today. While this is not uncommon for sitting presidents, it has to be concerning to the Democratic faithful.
Just after the 2020 election, I predicted to my close friends that Biden would not complete his first term and would resign due to some illness or another so that Kamala Harris could take the reigns and attempt to position herself as worthy of re-election in 2024, similar to Lyndon Johnson in 1964. That’s still a possibility, but Kamala has made so many gaffes of her own, along with being positioned poorly by the administration (think “border czar”…), that the party leaders are probably leery of this transition at present.
Gerald Ford lost the 1976 presidential election to upstart Jimmy Carter for several reasons: First, strong competition from Ronald Reagan during the primary season wounded him within the Republican party. Second, many were still angry at Ford for pardoning Richard Nixon. And third, but not insignificantly, a popular new TV show called Saturday Night Live turned Ford into a cartoon character by frequently replaying clips of him slipping and falling down the stairs of Air Force One. Physical commedian Chevy Chase became famous for falling while portraying Ford on the show. Even though Ford might have been the best athlete to ever become President, that one tumble enabled political opponents to brand him as a buffoon.
Biden has some of the same issues. It’s not just his stumbles and falls, but the sometimes incoherent babbling that makes him seem like the grandpa who was signed out of the home to join the family for dinner. Fox News’ late night political comedy show, Gutfeld, has taken a page from Saturday Night Live by regularly featuring videos of Biden stumbles and verbal ramblings, as well as using comedian Tom Shillue to portray a bumbling Biden. Dems know the power of this type of branding as they were relentless at branding Trump a madman, with help from Saturday Night Live nearly 40 years after their lampoons of Gerald Ford. Of course Trump made it pretty easy for them!
But can Biden survive (politically) until the general election? Between his seemingly more frequent verbal and physical gaffes, his noticeably light schedule, some scandals that are gaining traction, and that pesky Robert Kennedy, Jr. who is gaining in popularity, are Dems going to have to look in a different direction for 2024? If so, to whom? The clock is ticking. In 1968 Robert Kennedy was in second place behind Hubert Humphrey in the Democratic race, but was charging after a win in the California primary and many thought he would take the nomination. After Kennedy’s assassination, the Dems were able to rally behind Humphrey, but not enough to salvage the 1968 election won by the Republican, Nixon.
Dems have more time now, but it’s unclear if they have a reliable number two candidate. Bernie Sanders is no longer viable, and Kamala wasn’t able to garner any momentum on her own. Pete Buttigieg is a favorite of the progressive wing, but has struggled in his cabinet position. The only person waiting in the wings and the most likely last minute candidate is Gavin Newsome.
Newsome is a compelling candidate. He’ll be well-supported by the progressives. However, Republicans would probably also welcome a Newsome candidacy if it comes to that simply because he has a record that they would see as easy to attack. One that won’t sway the progressives, but might influence the moderates and independents: “Would you rather live in the Peoples’ Republic of California or the Free State of Florida?”
The worst thing that could happen for Democrats is for a) Joe Biden to remain in the race and for Donald Trump to drop out. No one expects that to happen. But if circumstances change and Trump either decides on his own or the decision is made for him by law enforcement or the party, the Republican primary becomes a free-for-all with almost anyone emerging as the front-runner being well positioned to beat the frail Biden in the general election. Or, b) Joe Manchin or someone similar decides to run as a third party moderate candidate that would likely siphon more Democrats than Republicans.
The best thing that could happen for Democrats is either a) Trump wins the Republican nomination. It’s no surprise that CNN and now possibly MSNBC are suddenly willing to host Trump town halls and interviews. They desperately want Trump to win his party’s nomination. Or, b) Biden changes his mind about running for re-election soon and there is a legitimate primary competition for the next candidate with rank-and-file Democrats getting to decide if they’re going to continue to fully support the progressive agenda or attempt to hold-on to those moderate/independents who are pro-choice but concerned about some of the other progressive priorities.
The remainder of 2023 is certainly going to be interesting.